Minority Report

Abilene, KS — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Dickinson County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 54°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—28°0%
US model (GFS)53°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)54°36°0%
German model (ICON)54°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°30°0%
The average54°32°0%

Friday, November 13

High 47°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°27°0%
US model (GFS)44°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°30°0%
German model (ICON)49°21°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°21°0%
The average47°26°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 51°   Low 29°   Rain 4%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 9 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°35°9%
US model (GFS)51°29°3%
European model (ECMWF)50°32°0%
German model (ICON)53°28°3%
Canadian model (GEM)51°22°7%
The average51°29°4%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 36°   Rain 15%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 9°, rain spread 25 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 15%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°31°15%
US model (GFS)46°41°13%
European model (ECMWF)53°33°4%
German model (ICON)55°38°16%
Canadian model (GEM)51°35°29%
The average51°36°15%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.