Minority Report

Accomac, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Accomack County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 67°   Low 50°   Rain 18%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 17 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 7% against a group average of 18%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—40°7%
US model (GFS)70°52°20%
European model (ECMWF)67°54°24%
German model (ICON)66°54°23%
Canadian model (GEM)67°51°14%
The average67°50°18%

Friday, November 13

High 54°   Low 42°   Rain 36%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 89 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 98% against a group average of 36%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°36°25%
US model (GFS)52°42°9%
European model (ECMWF)57°44°98%
German model (ICON)54°43°15%
Canadian model (GEM)54°44°34%
The average54°42°36%

Saturday, November 14

High 50°   Low 41°   Rain 26%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 40 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 48% against a group average of 26%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°37°17%
US model (GFS)50°39°15%
European model (ECMWF)51°43°41%
German model (ICON)50°42°8%
Canadian model (GEM)50°41°48%
The average50°41°26%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 44°   Rain 4%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 14 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 14% against a group average of 4%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°36°0%
US model (GFS)50°44°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°47°14%
German model (ICON)52°44°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°47°5%
The average52°44°4%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.