Minority Report

Aguada Municipio, PR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Aguada Municipio.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 90°   Low 75°   Rain 59%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 100 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 0% against a group average of 59%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—75°0%
US model (GFS)92°75°100%
European model (ECMWF)84°80°94%
German model (ICON)93°70°68%
Canadian model (GEM)90°76°35%
The average90°75°59%

Friday, November 13

High 90°   Low 76°   Rain 8%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 20% against a group average of 8%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service91°76°20%
US model (GFS)90°76°0%
European model (ECMWF)88°81°6%
German model (ICON)93°73°10%
Canadian model (GEM)88°75°6%
The average90°76°8%

Saturday, November 14

High 90°   Low 78°   Rain 23%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 40 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 46% against a group average of 23%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service91°74°20%
US model (GFS)90°77°10%
European model (ECMWF)88°81°46%
German model (ICON)92°78°6%
Canadian model (GEM)89°79°32%
The average90°78°23%

Sunday, November 15

High 90°   Low 76°   Rain 16%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 25 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 3% against a group average of 16%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service91°73°28%
US model (GFS)91°76°3%
European model (ECMWF)84°80°16%
German model (ICON)94°75°26%
Canadian model (GEM)88°77°5%
The average90°76°16%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.