Minority Report

Alamogordo, NM — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Otero County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 68°   Low 47°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—46°0%
US model (GFS)68°45°0%
European model (ECMWF)68°47°0%
German model (ICON)68°47°0%
Canadian model (GEM)67°51°0%
The average68°47°0%

Friday, November 13

High 67°   Low 48°   Rain 74%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 33 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 96% against a group average of 74%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service68°47°73%
US model (GFS)67°48°71%
European model (ECMWF)69°49°96%
German model (ICON)66°48°68%
Canadian model (GEM)67°50°63%
The average67°48°74%

Saturday, November 14

High 60°   Low 47°   Rain 59%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 53 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 92% against a group average of 59%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°44°39%
US model (GFS)59°47°40%
European model (ECMWF)60°47°92%
German model (ICON)61°47°53%
Canadian model (GEM)57°49°69%
The average60°47°59%

Sunday, November 15

High 60°   Low 42°   Rain 5%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 14 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°41°0%
US model (GFS)60°48°1%
European model (ECMWF)60°44°4%
German model (ICON)61°40°14%
Canadian model (GEM)58°37°5%
The average60°42°5%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.