Minority Report

Aledo, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Mercer County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 45°   Low 34°   Rain 3%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 14 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 14% against a group average of 3%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°0%
US model (GFS)44°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)45°36°2%
German model (ICON)46°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°35°14%
The average45°34°3%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°24°0%
US model (GFS)42°25°1%
European model (ECMWF)41°31°0%
German model (ICON)42°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°24°0%
The average42°27°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°26°0%
US model (GFS)44°23°0%
European model (ECMWF)44°27°0%
German model (ICON)45°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°20°0%
The average44°25°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°27°0%
US model (GFS)49°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°29°0%
German model (ICON)49°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°16°0%
The average48°27°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.