Minority Report

Alexandria, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Alexandria city.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 65°   Low 47°   Rain 40%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 72 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 78% against a group average of 40%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—44°6%
US model (GFS)65°47°26%
German model (ICON)63°50°78%
Canadian model (GEM)66°48°48%
The average65°47°40%

Friday, November 13

High 49°   Low 37°   Rain 18%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 26 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 3% against a group average of 18%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°36°14%
US model (GFS)47°35°3%
German model (ICON)50°37°28%
Canadian model (GEM)49°42°29%
The average49°37°18%

Saturday, November 14

High 50°   Low 35°   Rain 9%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 1°, rain spread 16 points, 4 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°39°4%
US model (GFS)50°32°2%
German model (ICON)50°34°13%
Canadian model (GEM)50°34°18%
The average50°35°9%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 40°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°37°0%
US model (GFS)50°44°0%
German model (ICON)53°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°41°0%
The average52°40°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.