Minority Report

Alfred, ME — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of York County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 45°   Low 35°   Rain 70%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 63 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 35% against a group average of 70%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°84%
US model (GFS)45°34°35%
European model (ECMWF)44°38°98%
German model (ICON)43°38°80%
Canadian model (GEM)47°34°52%
The average45°35°70%

Friday, November 13

High 44°   Low 32°   Rain 59%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 45 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 28% against a group average of 59%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°26°62%
US model (GFS)44°34°28%
European model (ECMWF)46°34°73%
German model (ICON)43°33°70%
Canadian model (GEM)43°31°62%
The average44°32°59%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 30°   Rain 3%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°27°1%
US model (GFS)45°32°2%
European model (ECMWF)44°32°4%
German model (ICON)44°32°5%
Canadian model (GEM)45°26°5%
The average45°30°3%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 30°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°28°1%
US model (GFS)46°30°1%
European model (ECMWF)45°33°2%
German model (ICON)46°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°28°2%
The average46°30°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.