Minority Report

Alma, WI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Buffalo County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 41°   Low 31°   Rain 26%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 63 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 63% against a group average of 26%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—26°0%
US model (GFS)40°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)41°35°29%
German model (ICON)41°31°63%
Canadian model (GEM)41°33°38%
The average41°31°26%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°24°0%
US model (GFS)38°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)39°30°0%
German model (ICON)40°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°21°0%
The average40°26°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°26°0%
US model (GFS)44°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)42°29°0%
German model (ICON)43°25°0%
Canadian model (GEM)42°16°0%
The average43°25°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°29°0%
US model (GFS)49°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°29°0%
German model (ICON)48°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°17°0%
The average48°26°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.