Minority Report

Alpine County, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Alpine County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 56°   Low 33°   Rain 7%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 33 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 33% against a group average of 7%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°33%
US model (GFS)57°35°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°27°0%
German model (ICON)58°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)56°39°0%
The average56°33°7%

Friday, November 13

High 39°   Low 26°   Rain 100%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service38°23°99%
US model (GFS)38°24°100%
European model (ECMWF)38°27°100%
German model (ICON)41°28°100%
Canadian model (GEM)42°28°100%
The average39°26°100%

Saturday, November 14

High 41°   Low 22°   Rain 33%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 80 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 88% against a group average of 33%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service38°26°8%
US model (GFS)37°20°12%
European model (ECMWF)44°15°33%
German model (ICON)41°22°25%
Canadian model (GEM)45°26°88%
The average41°22°33%

Sunday, November 15

High 42°   Low 29°   Rain 64%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 43 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 91% against a group average of 64%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°29°91%
US model (GFS)39°24°62%
European model (ECMWF)43°26°48%
German model (ICON)45°32°69%
Canadian model (GEM)44°35°52%
The average42°29°64%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.