Minority Report

Alva, OK — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Woods County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 65°   Low 39°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°0%
US model (GFS)65°41°0%
European model (ECMWF)64°42°0%
German model (ICON)64°41°0%
Canadian model (GEM)67°38°0%
The average65°39°0%

Friday, November 13

High 53°   Low 35°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°32°0%
US model (GFS)52°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)53°38°0%
German model (ICON)53°36°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°33°0%
The average53°35°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 53°   Low 35°   Rain 77%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 32 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 59% against a group average of 77%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°37°82%
US model (GFS)53°32°73%
European model (ECMWF)51°38°91%
German model (ICON)56°37°59%
Canadian model (GEM)55°32°81%
The average53°35°77%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 40°   Rain 90%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 80% against a group average of 90%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°35°80%
US model (GFS)47°41°89%
European model (ECMWF)45°42°100%
German model (ICON)45°42°88%
Canadian model (GEM)41°39°95%
The average45°40°90%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.