Amherst, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Amherst County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 65° Low 43° Rain 24%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 40 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 41° | 12% |
| US model (GFS) | 65° | 44° | 24% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 64° | 44° | 46% |
| German model (ICON) | 65° | 40° | 33% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 66° | 43° | 6% |
| The average | 65° | 43° | 24% |
High 55° Low 36° Rain 3%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 56° | 30° | 8% |
| US model (GFS) | 54° | 35° | 3% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 55° | 39° | 2% |
| German model (ICON) | 55° | 36° | 3% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 54° | 38° | 0% |
| The average | 55° | 36° | 3% |
High 51° Low 30° Rain 0%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 52° | 28° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 50° | 31° | 2% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 50° | 35° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 51° | 26° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 50° | 31° | 0% |
| The average | 51° | 30° | 0% |
High 54° Low 32° Rain 0%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 56° | 28° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 55° | 32° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 52° | 38° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 56° | 31° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 53° | 31° | 0% |
| The average | 54° | 32° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.