Minority Report

Annapolis, MD — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Anne Arundel County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 64°   Low 48°   Rain 54%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 74 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 92% against a group average of 54%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—43°18%
US model (GFS)65°48°21%
European model (ECMWF)64°51°92%
German model (ICON)63°52°85%
Canadian model (GEM)66°48°52%
The average64°48°54%

Friday, November 13

High 49°   Low 40°   Rain 47%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 42 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 75% against a group average of 47%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°37°37%
US model (GFS)48°38°33%
European model (ECMWF)51°44°75%
German model (ICON)52°41°50%
Canadian model (GEM)49°41°40%
The average49°40°47%

Saturday, November 14

High 50°   Low 36°   Rain 13%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 1°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 25% against a group average of 13%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°36°4%
US model (GFS)49°33°3%
European model (ECMWF)50°39°10%
German model (ICON)50°37°25%
Canadian model (GEM)49°36°25%
The average50°36°13%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 41°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°36°0%
US model (GFS)50°43°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°43°0%
German model (ICON)52°40°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°43°0%
The average51°41°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.