Minority Report

Appleton, WI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Outagamie County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 40°   Low 31°   Rain 5%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 15 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 15% against a group average of 5%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°3%
US model (GFS)41°31°2%
European model (ECMWF)39°32°0%
German model (ICON)41°32°15%
Canadian model (GEM)40°33°5%
The average40°31°5%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 29°   Rain 2%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°28°3%
US model (GFS)40°31°5%
European model (ECMWF)40°30°2%
German model (ICON)41°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)39°29°0%
The average40°29°2%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°28°0%
US model (GFS)43°33°2%
European model (ECMWF)40°30°0%
German model (ICON)45°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°24°0%
The average43°29°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 44°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°29°0%
US model (GFS)43°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)44°27°0%
German model (ICON)45°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)42°17°0%
The average44°26°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.