Minority Report

Arcadia, LA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Bienville Parish.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 74°   Low 50°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—43°1%
US model (GFS)75°50°0%
European model (ECMWF)74°51°0%
German model (ICON)74°50°0%
Canadian model (GEM)74°54°0%
The average74°50°0%

Friday, November 13

High 61°   Low 42°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°38°1%
US model (GFS)60°44°0%
European model (ECMWF)60°44°0%
German model (ICON)59°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)63°45°0%
The average61°42°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 58°   Low 38°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°40°4%
US model (GFS)61°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)57°40°0%
German model (ICON)58°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)57°41°0%
The average58°38°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 55°   Low 42°   Rain 70%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 15°, rain spread 34 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 50% against a group average of 70%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°41°63%
US model (GFS)63°41°50%
European model (ECMWF)53°44°84%
German model (ICON)48°42°83%
Canadian model (GEM)54°44°71%
The average55°42°70%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.