Minority Report

Arco, ID — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Butte County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 55°   Low 34°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°0%
US model (GFS)54°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)55°38°0%
German model (ICON)56°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°35°0%
The average55°34°0%

Friday, November 13

High 52°   Low 38°   Rain 73%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 57 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 33% against a group average of 73%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°35°61%
US model (GFS)54°38°33%
European model (ECMWF)51°41°90%
German model (ICON)53°38°90%
Canadian model (GEM)52°35°90%
The average52°38°73%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 32°   Rain 83%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 51 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 49% against a group average of 83%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°24°49%
US model (GFS)46°33°68%
European model (ECMWF)45°36°100%
German model (ICON)50°35°100%
Canadian model (GEM)47°29°100%
The average46°32°83%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 31°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 7 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°27°7%
US model (GFS)42°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)43°36°0%
German model (ICON)44°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)42°27°0%
The average43°31°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.