Minority Report

Arecibo Municipio, PR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Arecibo Municipio.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 91°   Low 72°   Rain 53%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 100 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 0% against a group average of 53%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—75°0%
US model (GFS)92°73°100%
European model (ECMWF)87°73°100%
German model (ICON)93°68°55%
Canadian model (GEM)92°70°11%
The average91°72°53%

Friday, November 13

High 91°   Low 75°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 20% against a group average of 6%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service92°75°20%
US model (GFS)90°75°0%
European model (ECMWF)90°77°4%
German model (ICON)93°73°3%
Canadian model (GEM)91°72°5%
The average91°75°6%

Saturday, November 14

High 91°   Low 76°   Rain 26%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 56 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 59% against a group average of 26%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service92°74°50%
US model (GFS)90°76°3%
European model (ECMWF)88°78°59%
German model (ICON)94°77°5%
Canadian model (GEM)92°74°14%
The average91°76°26%

Sunday, November 15

High 90°   Low 73°   Rain 10%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 9°, rain spread 25 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 25% against a group average of 10%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service91°74°25%
US model (GFS)88°74°3%
European model (ECMWF)85°75°14%
German model (ICON)94°71°10%
Canadian model (GEM)89°71°0%
The average90°73°10%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.