Minority Report

Arkadelphia, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Clark County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 71°   Low 44°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°1%
US model (GFS)72°46°1%
European model (ECMWF)71°50°0%
German model (ICON)70°43°0%
Canadian model (GEM)71°48°0%
The average71°44°0%

Friday, November 13

High 57°   Low 35°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°30°0%
US model (GFS)58°38°1%
European model (ECMWF)56°40°0%
German model (ICON)56°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)59°36°0%
The average57°35°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 55°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°32°2%
US model (GFS)58°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)55°37°0%
German model (ICON)56°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°33°0%
The average55°32°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 55°   Low 38°   Rain 48%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 28 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 31% against a group average of 48%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°34°46%
US model (GFS)58°38°31%
European model (ECMWF)54°41°59%
German model (ICON)55°38°56%
Canadian model (GEM)55°38°48%
The average55°38°48%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.