Minority Report

Arkansas City, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Desha County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 70°   Low 50°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—39°0%
US model (GFS)72°51°0%
European model (ECMWF)70°54°0%
German model (ICON)69°51°0%
Canadian model (GEM)70°53°0%
The average70°50°0%

Friday, November 13

High 55°   Low 38°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°33°0%
US model (GFS)55°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)55°44°0%
German model (ICON)55°40°0%
Canadian model (GEM)56°38°0%
The average55°38°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 35°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°37°0%
US model (GFS)56°32°0%
European model (ECMWF)54°40°0%
German model (ICON)54°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°33°0%
The average54°35°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 58°   Low 40°   Rain 27%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 33 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 44% against a group average of 27%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°40°23%
US model (GFS)61°41°24%
European model (ECMWF)56°42°32%
German model (ICON)59°40°44%
Canadian model (GEM)58°37°11%
The average58°40°27%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.