Minority Report

Arnett, OK — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Ellis County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 72°   Low 40°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°0%
US model (GFS)72°40°0%
European model (ECMWF)69°43°0%
German model (ICON)74°44°0%
Canadian model (GEM)72°42°0%
The average72°40°0%

Friday, November 13

High 57°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°35°0%
US model (GFS)57°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)57°39°0%
German model (ICON)57°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)57°36°0%
The average57°37°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 52°   Low 37°   Rain 93%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 16 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°37°98%
US model (GFS)51°34°84%
European model (ECMWF)51°40°100%
German model (ICON)54°38°90%
Canadian model (GEM)52°37°94%
The average52°37°93%

Sunday, November 15

High 44°   Low 38°   Rain 86%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 45 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 51% against a group average of 86%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°34°51%
US model (GFS)44°40°93%
European model (ECMWF)43°40°96%
German model (ICON)42°39°95%
Canadian model (GEM)42°36°95%
The average44°38°86%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.