Minority Report

Arroyo Municipio, PR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Arroyo Municipio.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 87°   Low 78°   Rain 56%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 70 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 56%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—79°30%
US model (GFS)88°77°56%
European model (ECMWF)86°80°100%
German model (ICON)88°77°60%
Canadian model (GEM)87°79°33%
The average87°78°56%

Friday, November 13

High 86°   Low 79°   Rain 64%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 67 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 64%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service87°78°40%
US model (GFS)86°77°52%
European model (ECMWF)85°80°100%
German model (ICON)88°80°33%
Canadian model (GEM)83°80°95%
The average86°79°64%

Saturday, November 14

High 86°   Low 79°   Rain 67%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 66 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 67%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service87°77°50%
US model (GFS)87°78°58%
European model (ECMWF)85°79°100%
German model (ICON)87°81°34%
Canadian model (GEM)86°80°93%
The average86°79°67%

Sunday, November 15

High 87°   Low 77°   Rain 14%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 27% against a group average of 14%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service87°76°7%
US model (GFS)87°76°7%
European model (ECMWF)85°79°27%
German model (ICON)88°77°13%
Canadian model (GEM)86°77°14%
The average87°77°14%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.