Minority Report

Arthur, NE — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Arthur County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 58°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°0%
US model (GFS)59°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)58°34°0%
German model (ICON)59°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)57°32°0%
The average58°32°0%

Friday, November 13

High 49°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 12°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°26°0%
US model (GFS)42°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)51°36°0%
German model (ICON)48°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°34°0%
The average49°32°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 30°   Rain 9%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°28°13%
US model (GFS)46°29°6%
European model (ECMWF)43°34°4%
German model (ICON)44°32°8%
Canadian model (GEM)46°29°14%
The average45°30°9%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 34°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 19 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 19% against a group average of 7%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°30°0%
US model (GFS)46°38°5%
European model (ECMWF)49°35°2%
German model (ICON)48°37°7%
Canadian model (GEM)48°28°19%
The average48°34°7%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.