Minority Report

Ashdown, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Little River County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 74°   Low 48°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—42°1%
US model (GFS)75°48°0%
European model (ECMWF)73°50°0%
German model (ICON)73°48°0%
Canadian model (GEM)74°50°0%
The average74°48°0%

Friday, November 13

High 60°   Low 42°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°39°1%
US model (GFS)61°45°1%
European model (ECMWF)58°44°0%
German model (ICON)59°41°0%
Canadian model (GEM)61°41°0%
The average60°42°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 57°   Low 39°   Rain 4%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°41°13%
US model (GFS)59°38°1%
European model (ECMWF)55°40°3%
German model (ICON)58°36°1%
Canadian model (GEM)56°39°0%
The average57°39°4%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 43°   Rain 69%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 26 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 54% against a group average of 69%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°41°70%
US model (GFS)54°42°54%
European model (ECMWF)48°44°80%
German model (ICON)47°43°71%
Canadian model (GEM)52°46°71%
The average51°43°69%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.