Minority Report

Aspen, CO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Pitkin County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 56°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°0%
US model (GFS)58°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)56°26°0%
German model (ICON)57°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)55°29°0%
The average56°29°0%

Friday, November 13

High 54°   Low 30°   Rain 8%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 38 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 38% against a group average of 8%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°30°38%
US model (GFS)55°36°1%
European model (ECMWF)53°27°0%
German model (ICON)54°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°29°0%
The average54°30°8%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 30°   Rain 78%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 42 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 78%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°28°92%
US model (GFS)45°34°76%
European model (ECMWF)44°31°65%
German model (ICON)47°29°58%
Canadian model (GEM)42°31°100%
The average45°30°78%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 28°   Rain 42%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 87 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 89% against a group average of 42%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°26°2%
US model (GFS)47°32°32%
European model (ECMWF)46°26°42%
German model (ICON)46°29°47%
Canadian model (GEM)47°29°89%
The average47°28°42%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.