Minority Report

Athens, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Henderson County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 77°   Low 50°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—48°1%
US model (GFS)78°50°0%
European model (ECMWF)77°53°0%
German model (ICON)75°51°0%
Canadian model (GEM)76°51°0%
The average77°50°0%

Friday, November 13

High 69°   Low 49°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service69°45°1%
US model (GFS)69°53°1%
European model (ECMWF)68°52°0%
German model (ICON)66°47°0%
Canadian model (GEM)71°51°0%
The average69°49°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 63°   Low 46°   Rain 23%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 40 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 2% against a group average of 23%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°45°42%
US model (GFS)64°46°11%
European model (ECMWF)63°47°30%
German model (ICON)58°44°32%
Canadian model (GEM)65°49°2%
The average63°46°23%

Sunday, November 15

High 54°   Low 45°   Rain 89%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 29 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 70% against a group average of 89%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°44°90%
US model (GFS)56°46°70%
European model (ECMWF)52°46°99%
German model (ICON)50°45°93%
Canadian model (GEM)54°46°91%
The average54°45°89%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.