Minority Report

Auburn, NY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Cayuga County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 46°   Low 34°   Rain 96%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 15 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 85% against a group average of 96%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°85%
US model (GFS)45°34°94%
European model (ECMWF)45°35°100%
German model (ICON)48°38°100%
Canadian model (GEM)46°34°100%
The average46°34°96%

Friday, November 13

High 39°   Low 33°   Rain 76%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 43 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 54% against a group average of 76%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°30°54%
US model (GFS)38°32°58%
European model (ECMWF)39°34°95%
German model (ICON)39°36°75%
Canadian model (GEM)39°34°97%
The average39°33°76%

Saturday, November 14

High 40°   Low 34°   Rain 89%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 21 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 89%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°33°80%
US model (GFS)39°32°79%
European model (ECMWF)41°36°100%
German model (ICON)42°36°88%
Canadian model (GEM)38°34°100%
The average40°34°89%

Sunday, November 15

High 41°   Low 35°   Rain 77%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 36 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 97% against a group average of 77%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°34°61%
US model (GFS)39°36°79%
European model (ECMWF)41°35°97%
German model (ICON)42°39°69%
Canadian model (GEM)41°34°77%
The average41°35°77%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.