Minority Report

Augusta County, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Augusta County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 59°   Low 41°   Rain 33%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 73 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 80% against a group average of 33%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—37°7%
US model (GFS)59°40°12%
European model (ECMWF)58°43°80%
German model (ICON)58°42°50%
Canadian model (GEM)59°42°14%
The average59°41°33%

Friday, November 13

High 47°   Low 32°   Rain 4%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°28°8%
US model (GFS)47°31°3%
European model (ECMWF)48°34°4%
German model (ICON)48°33°3%
Canadian model (GEM)48°32°0%
The average47°32°4%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 29°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°28°4%
US model (GFS)45°28°3%
European model (ECMWF)44°32°0%
German model (ICON)44°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°25°0%
The average45°29°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°27°0%
US model (GFS)49°28°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°34°0%
German model (ICON)49°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°25°0%
The average49°29°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.