Minority Report

Austin, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Travis County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 78°   Low 54°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—53°0%
US model (GFS)80°56°0%
European model (ECMWF)76°57°0%
German model (ICON)78°56°0%
Canadian model (GEM)78°51°0%
The average78°54°0%

Friday, November 13

High 77°   Low 52°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service76°51°0%
US model (GFS)79°53°0%
European model (ECMWF)75°56°0%
German model (ICON)77°49°0%
Canadian model (GEM)79°49°0%
The average77°52°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 68°   Low 52°   Rain 54%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 13°, rain spread 68 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 14% against a group average of 54%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service68°54°56%
US model (GFS)65°53°42%
European model (ECMWF)69°53°82%
German model (ICON)62°53°76%
Canadian model (GEM)75°45°14%
The average68°52°54%

Sunday, November 15

High 66°   Low 53°   Rain 79%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 32 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 57% against a group average of 79%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°51°80%
US model (GFS)72°58°57%
European model (ECMWF)62°52°86%
German model (ICON)62°53°81%
Canadian model (GEM)69°52°89%
The average66°53°79%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.