Minority Report

Aztec, NM — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of San Juan County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 60°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°1%
US model (GFS)63°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)60°32°0%
German model (ICON)61°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)57°27°0%
The average60°31°0%

Friday, November 13

High 60°   Low 36°   Rain 63%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 41 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 87% against a group average of 63%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°40°87%
US model (GFS)62°37°46%
European model (ECMWF)61°34°76%
German model (ICON)60°34°53%
Canadian model (GEM)56°33°52%
The average60°36°63%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 36°   Rain 93%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 21 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 79% against a group average of 93%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°31°87%
US model (GFS)49°40°79%
European model (ECMWF)49°37°99%
German model (ICON)48°41°100%
Canadian model (GEM)48°34°98%
The average49°36°93%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°32°0%
US model (GFS)50°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)49°31°2%
German model (ICON)52°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°26°0%
The average49°31°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.