Minority Report

Bad Axe, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Huron County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 47°   Low 38°   Rain 69%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 80 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 20% against a group average of 69%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°81%
US model (GFS)46°38°20%
European model (ECMWF)47°40°100%
German model (ICON)46°40°73%
Canadian model (GEM)47°40°71%
The average47°38°69%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 34°   Rain 77%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 63 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 32% against a group average of 77%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°29°75%
US model (GFS)40°35°32%
European model (ECMWF)40°35°95%
German model (ICON)40°36°95%
Canadian model (GEM)42°36°90%
The average41°34°77%

Saturday, November 14

High 42°   Low 36°   Rain 61%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 54 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 95% against a group average of 61%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°32°62%
US model (GFS)42°36°41%
European model (ECMWF)42°36°61%
German model (ICON)43°36°45%
Canadian model (GEM)40°37°95%
The average42°36°61%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 32°   Rain 12%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 21 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 25% against a group average of 12%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°28°18%
US model (GFS)43°39°8%
European model (ECMWF)41°35°4%
German model (ICON)44°34°5%
Canadian model (GEM)41°27°25%
The average43°32°12%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.