Minority Report

Baird, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Callahan County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 76°   Low 48°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—51°0%
US model (GFS)77°48°0%
European model (ECMWF)75°48°0%
German model (ICON)75°46°0%
Canadian model (GEM)75°46°0%
The average76°48°0%

Friday, November 13

High 72°   Low 49°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service70°49°1%
US model (GFS)74°50°0%
European model (ECMWF)71°50°0%
German model (ICON)71°49°0%
Canadian model (GEM)72°46°0%
The average72°49°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 62°   Low 49°   Rain 81%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 12°, rain spread 37 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 61% against a group average of 81%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°51°86%
US model (GFS)62°47°61%
European model (ECMWF)62°48°98%
German model (ICON)55°49°91%
Canadian model (GEM)68°48°70%
The average62°49°81%

Sunday, November 15

High 64°   Low 46°   Rain 75%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 12°, rain spread 38 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 98% against a group average of 75%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service60°44°61%
US model (GFS)72°48°76%
European model (ECMWF)62°48°98%
German model (ICON)61°46°60%
Canadian model (GEM)66°44°81%
The average64°46°75%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.