Baldwin, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lake County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 43° Low 32° Rain 52%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 70 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 26° | 10% |
| US model (GFS) | 44° | 34° | 47% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 44° | 35° | 80% |
| German model (ICON) | 43° | 31° | 53% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 42° | 34° | 71% |
| The average | 43° | 32° | 52% |
High 41° Low 29° Rain 18%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 49 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 42° | 27° | 18% |
| US model (GFS) | 40° | 32° | 10% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 42° | 27° | 6% |
| German model (ICON) | 40° | 27° | 3% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 40° | 33° | 52% |
| The average | 41° | 29° | 18% |
High 43° Low 33° Rain 7%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 45° | 28° | 10% |
| US model (GFS) | 43° | 34° | 6% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 41° | 34° | 2% |
| German model (ICON) | 45° | 35° | 3% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 43° | 34° | 15% |
| The average | 43° | 33° | 7% |
High 45° Low 31° Rain 1%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 46° | 26° | 2% |
| US model (GFS) | 45° | 36° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 45° | 32° | 2% |
| German model (ICON) | 46° | 34° | 3% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 44° | 28° | 0% |
| The average | 45° | 31° | 1% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.