Minority Report

Baraboo, WI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Sauk County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 41°   Low 32°   Rain 14%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 38 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 41% against a group average of 14%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—27°4%
US model (GFS)42°32°3%
European model (ECMWF)41°34°41%
German model (ICON)41°33°10%
Canadian model (GEM)41°34°14%
The average41°32°14%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 27°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°24°3%
US model (GFS)41°25°1%
European model (ECMWF)39°29°0%
German model (ICON)42°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)40°28°0%
The average41°27°1%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°26°0%
US model (GFS)44°24°1%
European model (ECMWF)42°27°0%
German model (ICON)44°25°0%
Canadian model (GEM)43°21°0%
The average44°25°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°26°0%
US model (GFS)46°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°27°0%
German model (ICON)48°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°18°0%
The average46°26°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.