Bardstown, KY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Nelson County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 56° Low 41° Rain 58%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 64 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 38° | 30% |
| US model (GFS) | 56° | 42° | 27% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 54° | 43° | 91% |
| German model (ICON) | 56° | 43° | 75% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 56° | 42° | 67% |
| The average | 56° | 41° | 58% |
High 46° Low 35° Rain 50%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 50 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 45° | 30° | 51% |
| US model (GFS) | 47° | 34° | 36% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 46° | 37° | 86% |
| German model (ICON) | 46° | 36° | 40% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 46° | 38° | 39% |
| The average | 46° | 35° | 50% |
High 48° Low 30° Rain 2%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 49° | 26° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 49° | 31° | 2% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 47° | 31° | 1% |
| German model (ICON) | 47° | 32° | 5% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 47° | 28° | 1% |
| The average | 48° | 30° | 2% |
High 51° Low 29° Rain 0%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 52° | 27° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 52° | 33° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 50° | 32° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 53° | 34° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 48° | 21° | 0% |
| The average | 51° | 29° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.