Minority Report

Bastrop, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Bastrop County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 78°   Low 53°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—49°0%
US model (GFS)80°54°0%
European model (ECMWF)77°56°0%
German model (ICON)77°55°0%
Canadian model (GEM)79°50°0%
The average78°53°0%

Friday, November 13

High 78°   Low 49°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service78°48°0%
US model (GFS)79°50°0%
European model (ECMWF)78°53°0%
German model (ICON)76°50°0%
Canadian model (GEM)79°45°0%
The average78°49°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 69°   Low 51°   Rain 47%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 11°, rain spread 54 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 19% against a group average of 47%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service70°52°50%
US model (GFS)69°54°29%
European model (ECMWF)70°53°73%
German model (ICON)63°52°65%
Canadian model (GEM)75°45°19%
The average69°51°47%

Sunday, November 15

High 67°   Low 53°   Rain 82%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 13°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 66% against a group average of 82%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service67°49°84%
US model (GFS)75°56°66%
European model (ECMWF)64°54°90%
German model (ICON)62°53°83%
Canadian model (GEM)68°53°87%
The average67°53°82%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.