Minority Report

Bath, NY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Steuben County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 44°   Low 33°   Rain 95%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 16 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 84% against a group average of 95%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—25°84%
US model (GFS)44°34°92%
European model (ECMWF)45°35°100%
German model (ICON)45°36°100%
Canadian model (GEM)43°35°100%
The average44°33°95%

Friday, November 13

High 37°   Low 31°   Rain 78%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 46 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 54% against a group average of 78%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°24°55%
US model (GFS)36°32°54%
European model (ECMWF)37°34°100%
German model (ICON)36°33°83%
Canadian model (GEM)36°33°100%
The average37°31°78%

Saturday, November 14

High 39°   Low 31°   Rain 65%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 46 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 95% against a group average of 65%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°27°60%
US model (GFS)38°32°56%
European model (ECMWF)41°33°49%
German model (ICON)39°32°65%
Canadian model (GEM)38°32°95%
The average39°31°65%

Sunday, November 15

High 40°   Low 33°   Rain 55%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 53 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 91% against a group average of 55%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°27°45%
US model (GFS)37°33°56%
European model (ECMWF)40°35°46%
German model (ICON)39°35°38%
Canadian model (GEM)40°35°91%
The average40°33°55%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.