Bay City, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Bay County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
← All cities and the scoreboard
High 48° Low 36° Rain 60%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 76 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 31° | 22% |
| US model (GFS) | 48° | 36° | 26% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 49° | 37° | 98% |
| German model (ICON) | 47° | 38° | 88% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 48° | 37° | 67% |
| The average | 48° | 36° | 60% |
High 42° Low 33° Rain 9%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 15 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 43° | 29° | 18% |
| US model (GFS) | 41° | 33° | 14% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 43° | 33° | 5% |
| German model (ICON) | 41° | 35° | 3% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 40° | 35° | 5% |
| The average | 42° | 33° | 9% |
High 44° Low 33° Rain 0%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 45° | 31° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 43° | 34° | 2% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 44° | 33° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 46° | 34° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 43° | 35° | 0% |
| The average | 44° | 33° | 0% |
High 45° Low 34° Rain 0%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 46° | 29° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 46° | 35° | 1% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 44° | 34° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 45° | 38° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 45° | 32° | 0% |
| The average | 45° | 34° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.