Bel Air, MD — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Harford County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 61° Low 45° Rain 68%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 84 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 40° | 16% |
| US model (GFS) | 60° | 46° | 53% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 62° | 48° | 100% |
| German model (ICON) | 60° | 47° | 98% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 63° | 45° | 71% |
| The average | 61° | 45° | 68% |
High 46° Low 36° Rain 64%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 44 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 45° | 33° | 49% |
| US model (GFS) | 46° | 36° | 44% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 48° | 39° | 88% |
| German model (ICON) | 47° | 36° | 65% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 45° | 38° | 76% |
| The average | 46° | 36° | 64% |
High 47° Low 35° Rain 20%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 34 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 48° | 34° | 4% |
| US model (GFS) | 46° | 34° | 5% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 47° | 35° | 18% |
| German model (ICON) | 47° | 34° | 38% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 46° | 37° | 35% |
| The average | 47° | 35° | 20% |
High 49° Low 36° Rain 0%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 51° | 32° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 48° | 36° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 49° | 39° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 49° | 37° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 48° | 36° | 0% |
| The average | 49° | 36° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.