Minority Report

Belfast, ME — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Waldo County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 43°   Low 31°   Rain 9%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 31 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 31% against a group average of 9%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°31%
US model (GFS)44°32°12%
European model (ECMWF)43°30°0%
German model (ICON)42°33°3%
Canadian model (GEM)43°30°0%
The average43°31°9%

Friday, November 13

High 43°   Low 32°   Rain 11%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 11%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°29°24%
US model (GFS)42°33°8%
European model (ECMWF)45°33°4%
German model (ICON)42°35°13%
Canadian model (GEM)43°32°6%
The average43°32°11%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 31°   Rain 13%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 18 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°28°8%
US model (GFS)42°31°10%
European model (ECMWF)44°31°22%
German model (ICON)43°35°4%
Canadian model (GEM)42°33°22%
The average43°31°13%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 32°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 23 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 7%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°30°1%
US model (GFS)43°29°3%
European model (ECMWF)45°32°4%
German model (ICON)45°34°5%
Canadian model (GEM)44°35°24%
The average45°32°7%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.