Minority Report

Bellaire, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Antrim County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 43°   Low 34°   Rain 66%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 67 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 66%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°33%
US model (GFS)43°34°42%
European model (ECMWF)44°36°77%
German model (ICON)43°32°78%
Canadian model (GEM)43°34°100%
The average43°34°66%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 32°   Rain 25%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 56 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 61% against a group average of 25%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°32°61%
US model (GFS)40°32°28%
European model (ECMWF)41°34°19%
German model (ICON)40°31°13%
Canadian model (GEM)41°32°5%
The average40°32°25%

Saturday, November 14

High 42°   Low 35°   Rain 11%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 29 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 11%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°32°29%
US model (GFS)43°36°11%
European model (ECMWF)40°38°10%
German model (ICON)44°36°5%
Canadian model (GEM)41°35°0%
The average42°35°11%

Sunday, November 15

High 44°   Low 34°   Rain 5%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°31°8%
US model (GFS)45°36°4%
European model (ECMWF)44°38°2%
German model (ICON)45°33°5%
Canadian model (GEM)42°33°5%
The average44°34°5%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.