Minority Report

Bellefontaine, OH — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Logan County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 48°   Low 39°   Rain 93%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 26 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 74% against a group average of 93%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°93%
US model (GFS)48°40°74%
European model (ECMWF)49°39°100%
German model (ICON)50°40°98%
Canadian model (GEM)47°39°100%
The average48°39°93%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 32°   Rain 71%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 71 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 71%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°28°29%
US model (GFS)41°32°58%
European model (ECMWF)41°35°100%
German model (ICON)40°33°70%
Canadian model (GEM)40°33°96%
The average40°32°71%

Saturday, November 14

High 40°   Low 29°   Rain 3%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°35°2%
US model (GFS)40°31°2%
European model (ECMWF)42°27°0%
German model (ICON)42°28°3%
Canadian model (GEM)38°26°8%
The average40°29°3%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 33°   Rain 1%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°32°1%
US model (GFS)44°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)43°33°2%
German model (ICON)46°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)39°28°0%
The average43°33°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.