Minority Report

Bellefonte, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Centre County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 50°   Low 38°   Rain 89%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 46 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 54% against a group average of 89%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°54%
US model (GFS)48°39°92%
European model (ECMWF)52°40°100%
German model (ICON)49°40°98%
Canadian model (GEM)51°41°100%
The average50°38°89%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 35°   Rain 67%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 68 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 67%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°31°40%
US model (GFS)39°35°29%
European model (ECMWF)42°36°97%
German model (ICON)40°36°88%
Canadian model (GEM)41°36°82%
The average41°35°67%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 34°   Rain 10%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 21 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 10%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°32°7%
US model (GFS)43°33°3%
European model (ECMWF)45°35°4%
German model (ICON)43°34°11%
Canadian model (GEM)44°35°24%
The average44°34°10%

Sunday, November 15

High 44°   Low 34°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°29°5%
US model (GFS)43°32°3%
European model (ECMWF)45°37°10%
German model (ICON)44°38°2%
Canadian model (GEM)44°36°15%
The average44°34°7%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.