Minority Report

Bellingham, WA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Whatcom County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 63°   Low 52°   Rain 14%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 22 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 27% against a group average of 14%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—52°17%
US model (GFS)61°52°9%
European model (ECMWF)64°55°27%
German model (ICON)61°52°5%
Canadian model (GEM)66°50°10%
The average63°52°14%

Friday, November 13

High 59°   Low 50°   Rain 60%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 19 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 48% against a group average of 60%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°50°55%
US model (GFS)58°49°61%
European model (ECMWF)58°50°67%
German model (ICON)57°52°48%
Canadian model (GEM)59°50°67%
The average59°50°60%

Saturday, November 14

High 58°   Low 51°   Rain 73%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 14 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°51°82%
US model (GFS)55°48°68%
European model (ECMWF)58°52°77%
German model (ICON)58°52°68%
Canadian model (GEM)60°51°69%
The average58°51°73%

Sunday, November 15

High 58°   Low 48°   Rain 75%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 36 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 96% against a group average of 75%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°45°69%
US model (GFS)55°48°68%
European model (ECMWF)58°49°82%
German model (ICON)59°47°60%
Canadian model (GEM)60°50°96%
The average58°48°75%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.