Minority Report

Bellville, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Austin County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 76°   Low 54°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—50°0%
US model (GFS)79°58°0%
European model (ECMWF)76°57°0%
German model (ICON)76°55°0%
Canadian model (GEM)74°53°0%
The average76°54°0%

Friday, November 13

High 76°   Low 51°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service74°50°0%
US model (GFS)79°55°0%
European model (ECMWF)76°54°0%
German model (ICON)75°51°0%
Canadian model (GEM)77°47°0%
The average76°51°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 68°   Low 51°   Rain 30%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 11°, rain spread 54 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 63% against a group average of 30%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service67°54°35%
US model (GFS)69°51°13%
European model (ECMWF)68°54°63%
German model (ICON)62°52°30%
Canadian model (GEM)73°47°9%
The average68°51°30%

Sunday, November 15

High 69°   Low 53°   Rain 79%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 32 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 59% against a group average of 79%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°52°80%
US model (GFS)73°54°59%
European model (ECMWF)67°53°84%
German model (ICON)69°54°80%
Canadian model (GEM)72°54°91%
The average69°53°79%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.