Minority Report

Belvidere, NJ — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Warren County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 55°   Low 43°   Rain 99%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 7 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°93%
US model (GFS)51°45°100%
European model (ECMWF)58°46°100%
German model (ICON)54°45°100%
Canadian model (GEM)57°44°100%
The average55°43°99%

Friday, November 13

High 45°   Low 34°   Rain 97%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°28°96%
US model (GFS)45°36°92%
European model (ECMWF)46°35°98%
German model (ICON)45°38°98%
Canadian model (GEM)45°36°100%
The average45°34°97%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 32°   Rain 10%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 22% against a group average of 10%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°30°0%
US model (GFS)41°33°5%
European model (ECMWF)43°31°4%
German model (ICON)44°36°20%
Canadian model (GEM)42°31°22%
The average44°32°10%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 35°   Rain 1%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°32°0%
US model (GFS)44°35°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°38°6%
German model (ICON)47°39°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°34°0%
The average46°35°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.