Minority Report

Bentonville, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Benton County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 59°   Low 36°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°0%
US model (GFS)60°38°0%
European model (ECMWF)59°38°0%
German model (ICON)60°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)59°39°0%
The average59°36°0%

Friday, November 13

High 49°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°28°0%
US model (GFS)47°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°32°0%
German model (ICON)49°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°30°0%
The average49°30°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 53°   Low 30°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°34°5%
US model (GFS)54°28°0%
European model (ECMWF)51°31°0%
German model (ICON)54°28°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°28°0%
The average53°30°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 37°   Rain 27%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 18 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 39% against a group average of 27%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°35°21%
US model (GFS)57°37°23%
European model (ECMWF)51°37°25%
German model (ICON)54°37°25%
Canadian model (GEM)49°39°39%
The average52°37°27%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.