Minority Report

Berryville, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Clarke County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 61°   Low 43°   Rain 48%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 75 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 10% against a group average of 48%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—40°10%
US model (GFS)60°44°18%
European model (ECMWF)62°45°84%
German model (ICON)60°45°85%
Canadian model (GEM)62°43°43%
The average61°43°48%

Friday, November 13

High 48°   Low 37°   Rain 16%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 26 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 2% against a group average of 16%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°31°12%
US model (GFS)46°33°2%
European model (ECMWF)51°42°20%
German model (ICON)48°36°28%
Canadian model (GEM)48°41°19%
The average48°37°16%

Saturday, November 14

High 48°   Low 34°   Rain 5%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 12 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°32°5%
US model (GFS)46°31°2%
European model (ECMWF)48°38°0%
German model (ICON)48°33°8%
Canadian model (GEM)48°39°12%
The average48°34°5%

Sunday, November 15

High 50°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°31°0%
US model (GFS)48°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°42°0%
German model (ICON)50°39°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°35°0%
The average50°37°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.