Minority Report

Big Lake, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Reagan County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 71°   Low 48°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—49°0%
US model (GFS)70°48°0%
European model (ECMWF)69°49°0%
German model (ICON)70°49°0%
Canadian model (GEM)72°46°0%
The average71°48°0%

Friday, November 13

High 69°   Low 49°   Rain 9%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 9%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service69°52°24%
US model (GFS)69°48°4%
European model (ECMWF)68°49°0%
German model (ICON)68°48°8%
Canadian model (GEM)72°46°7%
The average69°49°9%

Saturday, November 14

High 65°   Low 52°   Rain 69%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 9°, rain spread 57 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 69%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°55°43%
US model (GFS)61°52°65%
European model (ECMWF)66°52°100%
German model (ICON)66°53°72%
Canadian model (GEM)70°50°67%
The average65°52°69%

Sunday, November 15

High 67°   Low 48°   Rain 29%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 56 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 59% against a group average of 29%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°45°3%
US model (GFS)69°50°29%
European model (ECMWF)65°49°59%
German model (ICON)68°49°23%
Canadian model (GEM)68°44°33%
The average67°48°29%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.