Minority Report

Blountville, TN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Sullivan County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 54°   Low 41°   Rain 84%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 68 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 32% against a group average of 84%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°32%
US model (GFS)53°40°86%
European model (ECMWF)54°44°100%
German model (ICON)53°42°100%
Canadian model (GEM)54°42°100%
The average54°41°84%

Friday, November 13

High 44°   Low 36°   Rain 73%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 42 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 99% against a group average of 73%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°31°65%
US model (GFS)44°37°67%
European model (ECMWF)44°37°99%
German model (ICON)45°37°75%
Canadian model (GEM)44°37°57%
The average44°36°73%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 28°   Rain 31%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 78 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 86% against a group average of 31%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°28°8%
US model (GFS)43°29°10%
European model (ECMWF)43°30°86%
German model (ICON)41°35°40%
Canadian model (GEM)43°21°12%
The average43°28°31%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°26°0%
US model (GFS)46°27°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°30°0%
German model (ICON)49°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°19°0%
The average47°27°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.