Minority Report

Bolivar, MO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Polk County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 55°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—28°0%
US model (GFS)55°35°0%
European model (ECMWF)55°37°0%
German model (ICON)54°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)56°32°0%
The average55°33°0%

Friday, November 13

High 46°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°23°0%
US model (GFS)43°26°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°32°0%
German model (ICON)47°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)46°24°0%
The average46°26°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 50°   Low 24°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°30°1%
US model (GFS)51°22°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°28°0%
German model (ICON)52°21°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°18°0%
The average50°24°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 53°   Low 30°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°31°7%
US model (GFS)54°32°5%
European model (ECMWF)52°32°1%
German model (ICON)56°28°4%
Canadian model (GEM)54°27°11%
The average53°30°6%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.