Minority Report

Bozeman, MT — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Gallatin County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 60°   Low 38°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°0%
US model (GFS)58°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)60°38°0%
German model (ICON)66°44°0%
Canadian model (GEM)56°39°0%
The average60°38°0%

Friday, November 13

High 62°   Low 42°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service62°37°0%
US model (GFS)62°46°0%
European model (ECMWF)61°40°0%
German model (ICON)61°43°0%
Canadian model (GEM)62°43°0%
The average62°42°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 55°   Low 37°   Rain 29%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 42 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 53% against a group average of 29%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°31°11%
US model (GFS)54°38°25%
European model (ECMWF)54°39°13%
German model (ICON)58°42°53%
Canadian model (GEM)56°34°44%
The average55°37°29%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 33°   Rain 5%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°31°0%
US model (GFS)52°34°1%
European model (ECMWF)53°33°1%
German model (ICON)52°36°12%
Canadian model (GEM)53°29°13%
The average52°33°5%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.